How will it all end?

I can see two things happening and I can see them happening in tandem under certain conditions.

Firstly, I think we'll get to a position where governments are almost demanding people go back to work because the world's economies simply cannot take such a massive hit.

Secondly, people will rise up and demand an end to things, especially if extensions keep being added. Enforced lockdowns will fall apart.

I can see both those scenarios coming together and leaving a complete mess in their wake.

The problem with scenario #1 is that no government can function without tax receipts. No work = no tax being paid or at least the tax returns are greatly diminished.  With all the bail out programmes etc things are wholly unsustainable and the economies of the world will simply have to get up and running again.  In the UK alone the Treasury has said that they have set aside £330bn in business loans and guarantees, they have guaranteed to pay 80% of furloughed workers' wages, and have a further £3bn cash grants to give to a quarter of million small businesses. On top of all this they're also allowing some tax deferrals.  In other words, money will run out before long!

Th problem with scenario #2 is that there needs to be a democratic debate which hasn't happened so far. China and other repressive regimes can do as they choose, but amongst democratic nations there has to be a clear and fair democratic process which involves all citizens.  So here in SA the initial lockdown was imposed by govt with no negotiation and generally it was accepted with a certain amount of goodwill because the science suggested it was the way to go.  Since then the govt have extended it by a further 14 days with no negotiation.  There will come a point - and I would suggest it will be in early May - when the goodwill of the people will have been exhausted and people will at the very least demand to be consulted.  And knowing SA's proclivities for violent protest, things could end very badly indeed.

I do hope I'm wrong.  How do you see it all ending?


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